Don't Kid Yourselves, Bernie-Or-Bust Activists Aren't Democrats

A nightmare has broken out at the Democratic National Convention. Bernie Sanders delegates have staged a mass walkout after Hillary Clinton had officially clinched the Democratic nomination. While anti-Clinton protests have been staged outside the Wells Fargo arena before the start of the convention, this is the most direct revolt against Clinton and the Democrats as a whole. If Ted Cruz and the Never-Trump crew made the RNC a laughing stock, Bernie-or-Bust are just shy of erupting into a circus. 

This is the DNC’s worst fears come to life, feeding to the media’s narrative that the Democratic Party remains divided and in peril. The protest certainly won’t quell establishment Democrats anxieties that the divisiveness will undoubtedly help Trump secure the presidency. Certainly the Clinton campaign would hope to capture as many votes from Sanders supporters as possible, but maybe some of those participating in the protests were never really Democrats to begin with. 

As Harry Enten, legendary “whiz-kid” at FiveThirtyEight, surmised from polling data, only 41% of Sanders’ supporters have consistently voted Democrat in past elections. Closer to 60% of likely Clinton voters have stuck to party lines, and more had participated in both 2012 and 2014 elections. With this type of quantitative data in hand, the narrative of protesters showcasing party mutiny becomes slightly less credulous. 

Another factor to consider is that Sanders’ popularity is mostly made up by millennials, many participating in their first primary and presidential election. They never had any particular loyalty with the Democratic party, only becoming involved once Sanders’ started mentioning universal healthcare and debt-free college. Therefore the protests at the convention is not necessarily a revolt by card-carrying Democrats but of disenchanted youngsters that have become recently acquainted with the United States election system. 

For comparison, Enten found the complete opposite on the GOP side, as over 60% of Cruz supporters have been adamant Republican voters in the past. Their uprising against Trump were conservative loyalists trying to take back their party from a RINO. Cruz was originally to be the true outsider candidate in the Republican primary, a Texas Senator never afraid to stand up to the establishment and uses the fear of god to ramp support for his ultra-conservative views. He was actually attempting to take his rightful place at the convention that Trump had stolen from him. 

Here lies the clearest distinction between Never-Trump and Never-Hillary activists, the former is actually a part of the party while the latter are majority newcomers or independents. Cruz's fellow Never-Trump supporters are passionate Republicans that are greatly dissatisfied with their party and presumptive leader. This further renders the claim of divisiveness within the Democratic party as tenuous compared to the lack of Republican elites and filled seats found at the RNC.  

It will still be a difficult task for Clinton to actually convert these fickle voters, especially those that have vowed not to vote for either major party candidate. But if we dismiss these "nonpartisan" voters and focus on the traditional Democratic voter, they are arguably a slightly larger voting majority in the electorate in general elections than Republicans. And with the threat of a Trump presidency growing with each passing day, more and more undecided voters are warming up to Clinton. At least for the sake of great caution.