Stop the Meltdown: Clinton Win Still Inevitable

Still amidst a meltdown in the Democratic party after it was revealed the FBI in an unrelated case discovered more emails from Hillary Clinton during her tenure as Secretary of State, there have been no new revelations since FBI Director James Comey’s letter was sent to Congress. Yet polls have continued to look slightly better for Republican nominee Donald Trump, especially in swing states he desperately needs to achieve 270 electoral college votes. FiveThirtyEight forecast is a great indicator for the impact of the news on the polls, showing Clinton’s chances drop below 80 after sitting comfortably there for the past couple weeks.

All of this is to the chagrin of Clinton, who seemed all but certain to clinch the election and demolish the GOP. Now it all seems a distant dream, with down ballot candidates worried of the aftermath and losing their chance to take back the Senate. But does this “October Surprise” help Trump enough to win the election? How damaging is it really to Clinton’s last shot at becoming President of the United States?

Clinton is reportedly building a solid support in early voting taking place in some swing states, and the election will be entering its final week so the general feeling is most voters’ minds have been made up. So this gradual swing in the polls towards Trump is not only alarming for Democrats but also somewhat contradictory to what the public has come to expect the last couple weeks.

One reason I’ve come to believe for the uptick towards Trump is the optimism Republicans have conjured since these revelations from Comey. As the FiveThirtyEight crew went over in their past Saturday podcast, Republican voters have become more willing and incensed to participate in polls rather than after Trump’s Access Hollywood tapes were leaked. It has also made Clinton supporters generally less responsive to these same polls, giving the edge now to her Republican rival.

This theory can be easily dismissed as it is based on speculation with a lack of evidence. But much in the same way Clinton received a bump after her series of good debate performances (as well disastrous for Trump) ignited Democrats, now Trump is benefiting from her negative press. It’s especially worse for her when concerning emails, even if a lot of the public isn’t entirely sure what the controversy is but are positive they don’t like it.

If this theory has any truth to it, reinvigorated Republican voter base alone will not be enough to surpass Clinton’s already established lead. While Democrats may have decided to stop answering pollsters, they may become even more incentivized to vote after feeling secure with a Clinton presidency.

Unfortunately for Clinton, the only way the press and voters will stop talking about her emails is for Trump to get in his own way again, which can only happen so many times. Luckily for most of us, we only have to deal with this scandalous drama for only seven more days. Until then, Democrats should not be thwarted by the threat of a Trump victory, it’s an embarrassing episode that only bolsters his supporters more. They have already strongly convinced the public that Trump and the GOP are a circus show, don’t let them believe the other side is a melodramatic soap opera.